Nancy Dong reflects on ADE, changing loyalties and what ticket sales cannot tell us.

This week, Nancy takes over The Superfan Formula with a personal reflection from ADE. Her story raises a question for anyone working with artists: can a fan’s feelings begin to change while their behaviour still looks loyal?

tldr:

More choice doesn’t always mean more discovery. When faced with thousands of artists and events, we often fall back on what we already know.
Superfan behaviour doesn’t tell the whole story. You can keep buying tickets and bringing friends while your emotional connection to an artist starts to change.
Understanding fans means understanding why. Data can show what people do, but behavioural science can help uncover what drives their choices, what keeps them connected, and when those feelings begin to shift.

One of the big themes at ADE this year was AI, and with it, the growing importance of data ownership and direct relationships with fans. There was plenty of conversation about data, but I found myself wondering, in a world where we have more data than ever, are we doing enough to understand what fans actually feel and how they connect with music?

As a behavioural scientist, I reflected on how much other industries invest in understanding their customers. FMCG companies invest heavily in understanding why people choose one product over another - from how packaging catches their eye to how small sensory details shape their perception of quality. They want to understand not just what people do, but why.

I'm not sure the music industry always goes quite as deep.

ADE was a perfect reminder of just how complex the fan journey is. More than 3,600 artists, 1,300 events and 300 venues, all competing for attention in a single week. And yet, despite all that choice, I found myself gravitating towards many of the same artists and events I return to every year.

Behavioural science can help explain why. Faced with an overwhelming number of options, we tend to rely on shortcuts. Familiar artists feel like safer bets. We make snap judgements based on lineups, recommendations and assumptions, often without giving unfamiliar artists a chance. And when tickets are expensive, the perceived cost of making the wrong choice gets even higher.

More choice doesn't necessarily mean more discovery. Sometimes, we fall back on what we know, lean on recommendations from people we trust, or become so overwhelmed by the options that we end up choosing nothing at all.

One of many fan-made ADE planning tools to help navigate over 1,300 artists over ADE. (Source: https://ade26.vercel.app/

But it's another part of my ADE experience that's really stayed with me.

For more than a decade, I've followed one artist religiously around the world. Their music has been a huge part of my identity and sense of belonging. Some of my closest friendships, including my partner, grew out of going to the same gigs and festivals.

Lately, though, I've been questioning whether that connection is changing. Maybe their sound has evolved. Maybe my taste has changed. Probably a bit of both. At ADE, I saw them perform again and felt that familiar connection wasn't quite there.

But, from the outside, I still look like a superfan.

I bought the ticket. I convinced friends to come with me. I've spent years travelling to see this artist. But will I go to their next show in my own city? Will I plan another weekend away around their tour? Will I continue to convince friends to come with me? I’m not so sure. My behaviour still signals loyalty, but something has shifted underneath it.

If you were looking at ticket sales, you'd have little reason to suspect anything had changed. But by the time enough fans like me have stopped buying tickets, the shift might already be well underway.

Of course, one show doesn't tell the whole story. But that's precisely the point: understanding fans requires more than observing transactions. It means understanding their motivations, emotions, social connections and how these change over time.

What if artists could better understand why some fans start to drift, what keeps others deeply connected, and who is discovering their music for the first time? Not just to sell more tickets, but to build relationships that last.

This is the kind of thinking we bring to Sound Effects and the Superfan Engine: combining behavioural science with a deeper understanding of fans, helping artists strengthen existing relationships and find new audiences who want to be found.

By Nancy Dong