“Am I the one to know what you’ve done?”

What The Waterboys at The O2 revealed about the fans our marketing can miss.

“Oh my God. I would’ve loved to have been there.”

That was one of the responses after I posted footage from The Waterboys at The O2 a couple of weeks back. A lovely message, but if you work in the music business, a bloody frustrating one to read. Because the gig had already been and gone.

On Saturday 12 September, I watched Mike Scott and an extraordinary collection of musicians deliver nearly three hours of music. THREE HOURS! With Steve Earle thrown in for good measure, too. The Fisherman’s Blues Revue celebrated one of the band’s defining albums, with the spirit of This Is the Sea and their earlier “Big Music” running through the evening.

These songs have meant an enormous amount to people. They still do. So where were those people? Level 4, the upper tier, was draped off. Having checked with my contacts at the venue, there’s missed potential for another 4,000 - 7,500 people up there. This show deserved a full house.

And frustratingly, this show could have had a full house…or at least taken a big bite out of the seats in the Upper Tier.

The show had been promoted for months. I’d seen it advertised at The O2 and the occasional Ad in the music press.

“I WOULD HAVE LOVED TO HAVE BEEN THERE.”

So, the Monday after the show, I thought I’d try a small test. I posted videos across my social channels and watched what came back.

“I love The Waterboys.” “Waterboys changed my life.” “This Is the Sea… WHAT AN ALBUM.” “I didn’t know The Waterboys still toured.”

Messages and comments started rolling in from people who would have, could have been there too. This of course wasn’t a representative survey. A warm response to a video isn’t a ticket purchase, and as I’ve said many a time, a like is the lowest form of human commitment, but it did nevertheless reveal something quite specific: people in my own network who cared about this band and had missed the opportunity to see them.

Their affection was there. Awareness of the gig wasn’t.

THE SUPERFAN YOUR DATA MISSED

I love The Waterboys. I have seen them live many times. I own the vinyl, the boxsets. I’ve read the Autobiography. I regularly bash out their songs - very badly - on my battered old acoustic guitar. I’ve even seen Mike Scott perform solo too. I’m a huge fan, perhaps you could say, a superfan?

But you know what I’m not? I’m not on their mailing list. I don’t follow their official social accounts or participate in online Waterboys fan communities. My relationship with their music is much bigger than the digital trail I leave around it.

Then I posted about the gig. Suddenly, my feeds were chock-full of Waterboys content. But it was too late, because that ship had sailed.

We’ve been talking recently in The Superfan Formula about behavioural data as a rear-view mirror. CRM and fan platforms can only show us the actions they capture: who signed up, clicked, bought or engaged. That information is useful, but somewhere outside that database is a person who bought the album years ago and still knows every word.

Thing is, they have a work, kids, family commitments, a match at the weekend, dinner with friends. A life to get on with. They haven’t unfollowed the music in their head, or in their heart. They just aren’t keeping up with the artist online.

DIGITAL MARKETING NEEDS A BETTER STARTING POINT

Let’s be precise. Digital advertising can reach people who don’t follow an artist. Prospecting, targeting and recommendations can introduce a campaign to new audiences. My posts travelled through digital channels too, but the weakness is assuming those systems will reliably identify and reach everyone whose attachment makes them a potential customer. Being present in somebody’s feed is no guarantee of being noticed, remembered or acted upon.

Someone can carry an artist through their entire adult life without giving that artist’s marketing team a recent, useful signal. A campaign in the music press will miss those who no longer read it. Repeated posts on an artist’s channels can still pass completely unnoticed by someone who would be thrilled to go.

But, a friend? Well, they may know something the campaign doesn’t: what that music means to them. “Remember how often we played this? They’re doing a show. Shall we go?” A post from someone who knows you brings something different: a shared history and a reason to go together.

WHAT WE WOULD HAVE DONE

The Waterboys aren’t a Sound Effects client. I haven’t seen the campaign plan, budget or ticketing data, so this is certainly not a verdict on their team. And this is a very, very simplified illustration of how we would approach the opportunity. But nevertheless, the way we approach this stuff is very different and Superfan Engine is an innovative approach.

We’d have begun well before the show, probably before the show was even announced. Through Superfan Engine, we’d recruit a community(s) of existing, lapsed, potential fans, understand them, there basis of connection, value by having a real-world human interaction with them. We’d identify those that have agency and then through the superfan engine, mobilse them to spread the word, by giving them a reason to share.

The point is to give enthusiasm somewhere useful to go. Fans retain their own voice and choose whether to participate.

What we learned through the community would also inform the wider campaign. Test which stories connect, use the learning to improve paid creative, measure referrals and purchases alongside participation.

Digital marketing becomes more useful when it is informed by why people care.

HOW MANY EMPTY SEATS COULD 500 FANS FILL?

Imagine 500 enthusiastic fans, supported and encouraged over several months to reconnect people they know with The Waterboys. What if each persuaded five friends to book? That would mean 2,500 bookings, or even 5,000 tickets if you consider most people don’t go to a gig alone.

These aren’t anonymous advertising impressions. They’re personal invitations from someone who knows your taste, remembers your shared history and might be coming with you. That is the opportunity we would set out to test

Look, these are hypothetical scenarios, not measured conversion rates or a forecast for The Waterboys. Some people might already have been planning to buy, but that is a commercially meaningful question to investigate. How many people could we reconnect with, how many would come, and what would it cost to help them get there? The Superfan Engine doesn’t just ignite activity across social channels, but also WhatsApp, email and Word of Mouth too. Over several months, conversations may travel further through friends and friends of friends.

And we’ve started with just 500 participating fans. What if that community numbered 1,000, 10,000 or 20,000, spread across different countries? Their influence doesn’t stop at the border. A fan sharing their love of The Waterboys in Spain could remind a friend in London why that music still matters - and give them a reason to book.

That is what excites us about Superfan Engine: the people inside the community can help reconnect people far beyond it, through relationships the artist’s own channels may never reach.

THE FANS WHO NEVER GOT THE INVITATION

I can’t tell you how many extra tickets this approach would have sold at The O2. Artist, price, timing, venue preference and competing commitments all matter. Nor does the response to my posts prove that awareness was the only problem.

But what it does show is that some people who felt strongly about The Waterboys discovered this event after it had passed. For those people, the connection to the music was still there. The invitation had never reached them.

We have encountered that repeatedly in our work with major artists, celebrated catalogues and even sports. Not just for live shows, but also physical products, limited editions, commercial partnerships, merch, even content. The relationship with the music survives, while the connection to the artist’s current activity grows faint.

That is why our starting point at Sound Effects is understanding what the artist means to people emotionally, including those who rarely appear in the available data. From there, we can help build the relationships and invitations that create new behaviour.

I would like fewer messages saying, “I would have loved to have been there.” And more, months earlier, saying: “You’re going to love this. Come with us.”

If you’re planning a tour or a catalogue campaign, ask your team: how are we reaching the people who still love this music but no longer keep up with the artist? That is a conversation we’d love to have.

THEY STILL LOVE YOU, BUT THEY NEVER HEARD ABOUT THE GIG.