A couple of weeks ago, we explored how some of the smartest financial minds in the world completely misread the music business.

The response was immediate. In fact, it’s been the strongest response we’ve had to any edition of The Superfan Formula. Conversations across the industry. People reaching out. A shared sense that something isn’t quite right.

But why?

Well, I think there’s a couple of reasons, starting with why we all do this. The majority of us work in this industry because we are absolutely obsessed with music. There’s little delineation between our primary passion and our work. Which is exactly why the current direction of the industry feels so uncomfortable to us all.

A WARNING AND ALLEGORY TO THE VERY REAL DANGERS WE FACE

Of course, these two articles weren’t so much a historical tail of vinyl, as a warning and allegory to the very real dangers we face. Because when the people shaping strategy don’t understand fan behaviour…the consequences don’t just show up in formats. They show up in careers.

Much of the industry conversation reflected in analysis like this from Music Business Worldwide focuses on market growth, streaming revenue and long-term forecasts. But while these models are useful, they still tell us very little about why fans care in the first place.

Oops! Fan Disengagement

Let’s be clear. The resurgence of vinyl wasn’t just about revenue. It was about reconnection and fan engagement because it gave artists:

a new way to monetise catalogue
a deeper relationship with fans
a product that carried deeper meaning, not just music

It extended relevance and engagement, in an age agnostics way. Now imagine if that opportunity had been recognised early. Not reacted to late but understood and built into strategy from the start.

ARTISTS GET COMMODIFIED, REDUCING THEM TO RELEASE CYCLES, STREAMING SPIKES AND SHORT-TERM CAMPAIGNS

The outcome wouldn’t just have been financial. It would have been sustained cultural relevance at scale. Instead, the industry reacted, and reaction is always weaker than intention. So, as I said, the real lesson here isn’t about vinyl. It’s about what happens when strategy is built on models that:

don’t detect emotional shifts
don’t understand identity
don’t recognise cultural signals early

Because that’s when artists get commodified, reducing them to release cycles, streaming spikes and short-term campaigns instead of being developed as:

long-term cultural assets
multi-dimensional brands
evolving relationships
something fans grow with, not just consume

And fans? Well, they’ll get treated as data points, not uniquely diverse people. Flattened into segments. Measured by clicks. Managed through CRM systems that talk at them, not with them, leading to shallow engagement, transactional relationships and declining loyalty.

The Issue Isn’t A Lack Of Data...

It’s a lack of understanding of why fans care, what drives them, and how that translates into behaviour. In a previous piece, I explored why no amount of data or dashboards will help you predict behaviour or unlock growth, because they only tell you what fans do, not why they do it.

The irony is brutal. In a business built on emotion…we are increasingly relying on systems that don’t measure it. And what this little history lesson has shown us, is that when you ignore emotion, you don’t just miss insight. You miss a billion-dollar opportunity.

THE FUTURE OF MUSIC WON’T BE BUILT BY THOSE WHO OPTIMISE WHAT ALREADY EXISTS

Every meaningful shift in music culture starts the same way: with behaviour, not data. Not dashboards. Not reports. Not lagging indicators.

And it’s why artists and managers need to take back control of strategy, not in opposition to labels but in recognition that no one else is closer to the fan.

The future of music won’t be built by those who optimise what already exists. It will be built by those who understand what fans are about to care about next.

At Sound Effects, that’s always been the focus. Understanding not just what fans do, but why they do it. Because when you understand that…you’re not reacting to the future. You’re shaping it.

If this resonates, I’d be interested to hear what you’re seeing.